On February 24, 2022, the Russian army invaded Ukraine. Many, including myself and Russian President Vladimir Putin, initially believed it would be a short operation. Putin expected to topple the Ukrainian government within three days and install a puppet regime, turning Ukraine into a vassal state. However, events unfolded quite differently.

Rather than surrendering and giving up their sovereignty, Ukraine sought Western support, receiving weapons that allowed them to fiercely resist the Russian invasion. To avoid appearing weak, Putin escalated the conflict into a full-scale war, which has now dragged on for three years. During this time, Russia has managed to occupy around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, but progress has been painstakingly slow and has come at an enormous cost in human lives, financial resources, and military equipment.

Russia’s relentless ‘meat grinder’ tactics are unsustainable. The country is running out of funds to continue the war while its economy struggles with soaring inflation and high interest rates. This puts Putin in a precarious position. If the West maintains pressure and Ukraine continues to receive support, Putin may eventually be forced to withdraw – a move that would leave him vulnerable to backlash from Russian elites, the public, and key power groups.

So far, Putin has consistently framed the military operation in Ukraine as a necessary measure to protect Russian speakers and to achieve the ‘demilitarization and denazification’ of Ukraine. He claims that Ukraine has been under the control of neo-Nazis and Western influences, posing a direct threat to Russia’s security. But if he pulls out of Ukraine without achieving these objectives, how will he justify it?

Trump may have just provided him with a convenient narrative. According to expert Konstantin Samoilov, Putin could use the Trump administration’s pro-Russian stance to declare victory. Samoilov suggests that Putin might announce this on May 9 – Victory Day in Moscow.

“In my eyes, Putin has won”, Samoilov stated in a recent episode of Silicon Curtain. “For three years, he has been telling Russians: ‘We are not fighting Ukraine; we are fighting the collective West, led by the USA, which is using Ukraine as a proxy.’ Now he has an event in the White House where Zelensky was basically kicked out. Additionally, the U.S. suspended military aid to Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces withdrew from Kursk. That, to Putin, is a victory. On May 9, he might say: ‘Dear Russians, we have fought the USA – and we have won.’”

While an end to the war might seem like a relief for Ukraine and the West, Samoilov warns that Russia’s withdrawal could signal something even more sinister. “Putin will end the special military operation in its current form, only to replace it with something far worse. He will shift the Russian economy and society into full-scale war mode. He will say: ‘This war is over, but the threat remains – and now it is even bigger because it is Europe.’ The Kremlin will manufacture reasons to convince Russians that the real enemy is closer than ever, and the state will take complete control of the economy.”

I find Samoilov’s arguments compelling. The Russian military simply does not have the strength to continue pushing forward, especially if Europe remains committed to supplying Ukraine with resources – which I believe they will. As Silicon Curtain host Jonathan Fink points out, there are already signs that the Kremlin is preparing for this shift. Russian propaganda is framing recent U.S. actions as evidence that the Kremlin’s narratives were correct all along, reinforcing the image of Russia as the victor. Last week, Putin made Trump wait an hour before speaking to him in the ‘negotiations’ call to show the people that he was the big alpha male and Trump is basically his bitch.

Once again, we – the West – should not underestimate Putin as we did in the past. If he indeed ends the Ukraine war, we must assume that he will be back in full force. We are very far from a permanent peace with Russia, and arguably this can only be achieved if Russia is defeated. An inconvenient truth if ever there was one.