Tagarchief: Democracy

This is the Significant Moment When Everything Went to Hell for America

Posted on by Jeppe Kleijngeld

America is turning into an autocracy very fast. Every week there are new lows – like last week the arrest of a judge and the week before that Trump (He/him) regime’s refusal to return Kilmar Abrego Garcia from an El Salvador prison camp – despite the supreme court ordering them to do so.

Of the 71 million Americans who voted him in office, some might be wondering; how did we get here? I’ll argue that one significant moment played a key role in creating this disaster.

On the eve of the election day, on October 26, 2024, the extremely popular podcaster Joe Rogan interviewed Trump. I couldn’t bear to listen to his horse crap, but I recently watched one minute of the three hour interview on YouTube. In the fragment, Trump asked Rogan: “Come on, you’re not a Harris guy”.

And you see Rogan thinking: ‘shit, this guy is right. I am not a Harris guy’. Joe Rogan is manipulated at the spot. He lets himself be fooled by this con man. After that, he lets Trump get away with blatant lies about the 2020 election, which looks very bad for his interview ethos. I stopped viewing right after that.

What I took away from this short moment is that Trump – terrible person that he is – has at least one ‘quality’ that enabled him to become the 47th president of the USA: he knows just what to say to people to make them vote for him.

Of course this won’t work with everybody, but then again, he didn’t need everybody. He needed 71 million voters. He already had his loyal fan base secured, so he had to convince millions of others to vote for him. He and his campaign team put in all their efforts to convince right leaning people like Rogan to go for the Orange Turd. They were successful.

After the show, Rogan did something he had previously said he wouldn’t do: he endorsed Trump. With his immense reach amongst people for whom Rogan is their single source of news – tragic as this may be – he may have decided the fate of the United States.

How will he feel now, three months after Trump took office, and the country is sliding fastly into an authoritarian regime?

What we are watching right now might be the End of the American Empire.

The country is ruled by a mad king. Trump’s cabinet meetings are excruciatingly horrifying to watch. Every cabinet member that speaks, including Musk, first praises Trump for the absolutely brilliant leader that he is. And what an incredible honor it is to serve in his cabinet.

Then they proceed to tell absurd bullshit to cover up for their criminal actions. In the last cabinet meeting, Musk – in full Dr. Evil mode – bullshits about how he found 150 billion dollars in waste, fraud and abuse in the federal government. He says that ‘people are receiving social security that aren’t even born yet.’

This is just too much bullshit to handle.

Everybody knows how he is going to get this 150 billion. He will do it by slashing social security, medicaid, and other programmes for the poor – and recklessly fire tens of thousands of essential government employees. And Trump is gonna let him do it. The money saved will be given to billionaires like them as a tax cut.

Some still consider Trump a brilliant businessman, but he’s terrible in business – and that’s a fact. I mean, he bankrupted a casino once. Now, he’s going to bankrupt the country. He’s a fuck-up and a major fraudster.

The financial markets – who foolishly believed Trump would be good for business before – have now realised the terrible truth. Trump is so totally unstable and deranged that the risk for the world economy (countries, companies, currencies, and debt) is great. They finally realised, just like some voters did, that having a psychopathic gangster in charge of the largest economy in the world, might be bad for business.

It would have been exactly the same if they would have handed the reigns of the American government to Vladimir Putin or Kim Jung Un. That’s what the American’s did who voted this nut job into the White House.

Thank you, Joe Rogan.

Now maybe I am thinking too much of his endorsement. On the other hand, Trump thanked Rogan especially at his inauguration. Imagine that; that you would be responsible by having a cruel psycho elected who would then go on to create terrible suffering for millions of people. Who would send innocent people to an El Salvadorian prison camp to be tortured.

I have no idea how he feels about it, but this is a wound that he will have to live with. The same goes for all Americans, whether they voted for Trump or not. This is a national trauma and it will take decades to recover from it.

But first, they will have to remove Trump from office. Can it be done?

It will be very hard, that’s for sure. And even if they succeed, they will have a massive challenge waiting for them.

Let’s say they’ll have a revolution and remove Trump from office, will the two sides – the MAGA and the WOKE – reconcile and together restore the damage the Trump regime has caused? Will they think: ‘let’s go look at the root causes of this whole thing? Where did we go wrong? What laws are we going to introduce together to make sure something like this never happens again?’

The probability that this will happen is very small. Trump is a very severe symptom of a lethal disease: a mind virus that once it spreads through society – enhanced by anti-social media and AI – makes the country divided and ungovernable.

To stop this mind virus, we – the world – must regulate social media and AI. With AI becoming more powerful every day, we need to move fast to prevent every other democracy from sliding off the rails in the coming years and decades.

This will not be an easy feat – and America is in terrible shape. Still, the possibility also exists that the right leaders arise out of this sink hole and put the country on the right course again. A crisis can do that sometimes.

Right now, the crisis is not yet big enough. There are still many people, inside and outside of the USA, deluded by Trump and think it might not be so bad. But if enough people conclude: ‘this is not what we want’ and start fighting back in every way they can, it might bring about a new era of hopeful change.

Is this the end for the USA of merely the passage into a new prosperous era? Only time will tell.

Putin’s Psychological Warfare Has Finally Paid Of – Big Time

Posted on by Jeppe Kleijngeld

Vladimir Putin is having his best moment in three years. For much of the war, he appeared weak, unable to achieve what many believed would be a swift victory.

Consider the sheer size of Russia compared to Ukraine. And yet, after enormous human and financial costs, Putin has only managed to occupy about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Russia has suffered staggering losses – by some estimates 870,000 troops, alongside vast amounts of money and military equipment. His economy is in turmoil. In theory, the combined economic and military power of the U.S. and Europe could decisively tip the balance in Ukraine’s favor.

But geopolitical reality has taken a grim turn. 71 million voters made a catastrophic choice – electing a sociopathic criminal and convicted rapist to the presidency of the United States.

A lot has been written about the psychology behind this tragedy. What kind of country would elect this lying and grifting rapist not once, but twice? The answer lies in a potent mix of resentment, misinformation, and ideological extremism. Many Americans have allowed their hatred of liberals and minorities to blind them to the existential threat that a second Trump presidency poses. These voters display a troubling blend of egocentrism, racism, ignorance, delusion, and extremism.

Yet, we must not underestimate the role of a certain European dictator in this tragedy. For over a decade, Vladimir Putin has been waging psychological warfare against the West through social media and disinformation campaigns. His goal has always been to weaken Western democracies from within. And he has succeeded. Every major democracy is now plagued by far-right extremism. Societies are fractured, consumed by internal conflicts, and increasingly oblivious to the existential threats looming over them.

America is the first of Western democracies that is now in serious danger of collapsing. Trump has now – two months in power – begun defying court orders. Well at least one of them when a judge ordered his regime to return a plane containing alleged Venezuelan gang members. This marks a serious escalation. In the United States, the power is divided between three equal branches of government; the executive branch, the congress and the courts. Trump has already cowed the Republican-controlled Congress into submission. Now, he is setting his sights on undermining the courts. The question is: how far is he willing to go? I would say that with his completely deranged mental state at this moment, and all the terrible decisions he has made, eventually all the way. America is in deep, deep trouble.

The upside of all of this mayhem is that Europe is forced to get its act together – and help Ukraine to win the war. This is entirely possible because, as I wrote before, Putin is running out of money. However, intelligence provided by the US is still needed, so if Trump decides to stop sharing intel, Ukraine has to fight this war with blinders on. This is problematic and not something that is easily solved.

One immediate step Europe could take is utilizing frozen Russian assets under the Magnitsky Act to fund Ukraine’s war effort. To avoid destabilizing financial markets, this should be limited to assets proven to be acquired through corruption.

Putin is playing poker very well, but his cards – of which Trump keeps saying they’re so good – are really not that great. Unless of course, Trump really is a Russian asset for which quite a lot of evidence exists.

His latest remarks only reinforce this suspicion. This week, Trump suggested that the U.S. should take control of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, claiming that this would deter Russian attacks.

This idea is absurd on multiple levels. First, Russia is unlikely to target these plants due to the immense radioactive risk to its own territory. Second, if the U.S. controlled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, it could hold Ukraine hostage by shutting off power and making political demands. Most disturbingly, as defense expert Jake Broe pointed out, this move would prevent Ukraine from developing nuclear weapons – a prospect that has gained traction since NATO membership is no longer an option. Preventing Ukraine from acquiring nuclear deterrence is precisely what Putin wants. Once again, Trump appears to be acting completely in Russia’s interests rather than America’s and Europe’s. Let that sink in.

These are some of the most perilous times in modern history. This is our World War II moment, and we are only at the beginning. Yet, history provides hope: authoritarian regimes often fail. Let’s hope this collapse happens before irreparable damage is done. And if there’s one lesson we must take away from this, it is that unregulated social media has been an unmitigated disaster for the West and an extremely powerful weapon for the autocrats. It must be reined in to ensure that another Trump-style catastrophe never happens again.

Does advanced AI mean the end of our democracy?

Posted on by Jeppe Kleijngeld

For Business Insider, I recently wrote an article about the dangers for AI for democracy.
Read the article (in Dutch) here:

>>> Betekent geavanceerde AI het einde van onze democratie? Dit zijn de grootste bedreigingen volgens de auteur van Sapiens

A summary:

In Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind, the Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari traces the history of humanity from the earliest days of Homo sapiens to modern times. Harari’s central thesis is that human progress stems from our unique ability to collaborate and form complex societies, with stories and mythology playing a crucial role.

His latest book, Nexus, focuses on the information systems that people use to spread these stories and myths. For example, he describes the Bible as a particularly powerful technology that has profoundly influenced billions of people. This raises the question of what the rise of artificial intelligence – the most powerful technology we’ve ever encountered – will bring.

The new threat of AI
According to Harari, the current computer age is based on the openness of information. In other words, the freer information flows, the better society functions. However, the author believes this is a naïve view. Despite having vast amounts of information at our disposal, we’ve produced more weapons of mass destruction than ever, destroyed more habitats, and pumped billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, even though that information showed us we were inching closer to our own destruction. Will more information improve the situation? Tech optimists think so, like venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, who wrote a widely read essay in 2023 explaining why AI will save the world and why the panic surrounding AI is, in his view, misplaced.

Other AI experts are less optimistic. In 2023, a group of top AI specialists – including the heads of OpenAI and Google DeepMind – warned that artificial intelligence could lead to human extinction. Dozens signed a statement published on the Center for AI Safety’s website. ‘Mitigating the risk of AI-induced extinction should be a global priority, alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war’, it reads.

Harari believes we need to be aware of the dangers and the more sinister side of artificial intelligence. By understanding the history of information networks, we can avoid mistakes. However, he also notes crucial differences between AI and past technologies. AI is not just a tool; it is an agent. It is the first technology capable of generating its own ideas and making decisions. This brings two major risks: it can amplify existing conflicts and further polarize the world, or worse, AI could become a totalitarian force that completely controls our lives and politics.

Manipulation and mass destruction through toxic information
Historically, information networks have always been vulnerable to manipulation. Harari gives examples of how toxic information has had disastrous consequences, such as the witch hunts in the Middle Ages and the persecution of the Rohingya in Myanmar, caused by Facebook algorithms that prioritized maximum ‘engagement’. Social media and AI can take this manipulation to new heights by creating mass illusions that weaken democracies.

Democracy is already under pressure from populist leaders who claim to be the only ones who understand the people’s needs and who sow doubt about democratic institutions such as the media, the courts, and politics. Research shows that social media further contributes to this political polarization. AI could accelerate this even more through advanced algorithms that spread disinformation and amplify extreme opinions. AI’s ability to control human language, simulate empathy, and manipulate people makes it even more dangerous in the political arena.

As billions of intelligent agents enter our information networks, the likelihood of new mass illusions arising, similar to Nazism, Stalinism, or the current ideologies of Putin’s Russia, increases significantly. After all, information and truth are not the same. Without measures to tip the balance in favor of truth, society risks being overwhelmed by a swamp of ‘alternative truths’, which could seriously endanger society and democracy.

Controlling AI and the struggle for truth
Harari emphasizes that taking responsibility for AI is essential. Tech companies like Facebook must be held accountable for the consequences of their algorithms, which often fuel hatred and polarization. Networks must develop self-correcting mechanisms that reward truth and counter disinformation.

Another important issue is the ‘alignment problem’: AI can come up with solutions that humans hadn’t anticipated, leading to unpredictable and undesirable outcomes. Harari advocates for developing AI systems that seek feedback before making decisions to prevent dangerous outcomes.

To protect democracy from AI, Harari calls for the decentralization of information networks and strict regulation of AI applications. AI mimicking humans, such as in chatbots, should be banned to prevent manipulation of the political process. Furthermore, companies like Amazon must become more transparent about their internal processes so that information doesn’t flow in just one direction.

Hope and future outlook
Harari is not entirely negative about technology and AI. As a gay man, he found no one to connect with in his small Israeli village, but through a Facebook group, he met his current husband. Nevertheless, his view of humanity is less optimistic than someone like Andreessen’s, and history seems to be on his side. The stakes have never been higher than they are now, in the AI era. With the unprecedented power of this technology, humanity cannot afford to repeat the mistakes of the past.

The impact of AI on the global economy and the labor market will be enormous. The hope is that, amid the various superpowers, we can find common ground and stories that inspire us to make the right decisions so that AI contributes positively to the story of humanity and the evolution of life on Earth.