Vladimir Putin is having his best moment in three years. For much of the war, he appeared weak, unable to achieve what many believed would be a swift victory.
Consider the sheer size of Russia compared to Ukraine. And yet, after enormous human and financial costs, Putin has only managed to occupy about 20 percent of Ukrainian territory. Russia has suffered staggering losses – by some estimates 870,000 troops, alongside vast amounts of money and military equipment. His economy is in turmoil. In theory, the combined economic and military power of the U.S. and Europe could decisively tip the balance in Ukraine’s favor.
But geopolitical reality has taken a grim turn. 71 million voters made a catastrophic choice – electing a sociopathic criminal and convicted rapist to the presidency of the United States.
A lot has been written about the psychology behind this tragedy. What kind of country would elect this lying and grifting rapist not once, but twice? The answer lies in a potent mix of resentment, misinformation, and ideological extremism. Many Americans have allowed their hatred of liberals and minorities to blind them to the existential threat that a second Trump presidency poses. These voters display a troubling blend of egocentrism, racism, ignorance, delusion, and extremism.
Yet, we must not underestimate the role of a certain European dictator in this tragedy. For over a decade, Vladimir Putin has been waging psychological warfare against the West through social media and disinformation campaigns. His goal has always been to weaken Western democracies from within. And he has succeeded. Every major democracy is now plagued by far-right extremism. Societies are fractured, consumed by internal conflicts, and increasingly oblivious to the existential threats looming over them.
America is the first of Western democracies that is now in serious danger of collapsing. Trump has now – two months in power – begun defying court orders. Well at least one of them when a judge ordered his regime to return a plane containing alleged Venezuelan gang members. This marks a serious escalation. In the United States, the power is divided between three equal branches of government; the executive branch, the congress and the courts. Trump has already cowed the Republican-controlled Congress into submission. Now, he is setting his sights on undermining the courts. The question is: how far is he willing to go? I would say that with his completely deranged mental state at this moment, and all the terrible decisions he has made, eventually all the way. America is in deep, deep trouble.
The upside of all of this mayhem is that Europe is forced to get its act together – and help Ukraine to win the war. This is entirely possible because, as I wrote before, Putin is running out of money. However, intelligence provided by the US is still needed, so if Trump decides to stop sharing intel, Ukraine has to fight this war with blinders on. This is problematic and not something that is easily solved.
One immediate step Europe could take is utilizing frozen Russian assets under the Magnitsky Act to fund Ukraine’s war effort. To avoid destabilizing financial markets, this should be limited to assets proven to be acquired through corruption.
Putin is playing poker very well, but his cards – of which Trump keeps saying they’re so good – are really not that great. Unless of course, Trump really is a Russian asset for which quite a lot of evidence exists.
His latest remarks only reinforce this suspicion. This week, Trump suggested that the U.S. should take control of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, claiming that this would deter Russian attacks.
This idea is absurd on multiple levels. First, Russia is unlikely to target these plants due to the immense radioactive risk to its own territory. Second, if the U.S. controlled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, it could hold Ukraine hostage by shutting off power and making political demands. Most disturbingly, as defense expert Jake Broe pointed out, this move would prevent Ukraine from developing nuclear weapons – a prospect that has gained traction since NATO membership is no longer an option. Preventing Ukraine from acquiring nuclear deterrence is precisely what Putin wants. Once again, Trump appears to be acting completely in Russia’s interests rather than America’s and Europe’s. Let that sink in.
These are some of the most perilous times in modern history. This is our World War II moment, and we are only at the beginning. Yet, history provides hope: authoritarian regimes often fail. Let’s hope this collapse happens before irreparable damage is done. And if there’s one lesson we must take away from this, it is that unregulated social media has been an unmitigated disaster for the West and an extremely powerful weapon for the autocrats. It must be reined in to ensure that another Trump-style catastrophe never happens again.
FRAGMENTEN UIT HET SCHEMERLAND 