Tagarchief: Russia

America’s Drift Toward Autocracy Not Yet Priced Into Stock Markets

Posted on by Jeppe Kleijngeld

The rate at which Trump and his fascist thugs are installing an autocratic regime in the United States is breathtaking. Federal forces are deployed in cities with the instruction to use ‘maximum force’ against Americans, every institution that is not MAGA is attacked, and brown people are kidnapped off the streets by gestapo ICE agents by the hundreds. Every American who values democracy knows this is the fight of their lives.

The economic fallout of Trump’s policies is already visible. Tourism is struggling. Farmers are hurting. Ordinary people are seeing their spending power decline. Yet the stock market has held up surprisingly well since Trump took office. Certain sectors, especially tech, have enjoyed gains, even as volatility has spiked due to trade wars, tariffs, inflation risks, and global uncertainty.

Everyone understands America is facing serious long-term risks. Markets, however, are biased toward the short term: they price in near-term, quantifiable changes like tax or regulatory shifts. Longer-term and systemic risks – climate change, for example – are notoriously underpriced because they are difficult to time or quantify.

Authoritarianism, like climate change, unfolds gradually. Its costs are diffuse, slow to appear, and thus rarely priced in until too late. America’s drift toward authoritarianism under Trump is almost certainly underestimated by investors. Over time, it will be bad for U.S. companies and markets:

● Investors demand higher returns for exposure to countries where the rule of law is undermined.

● Arbitrary executive actions (e.g., against companies critical of the regime) would raise uncertainty and financing costs.

● Independent courts, regulators, and agencies provide predictability and contract enforcement. Authoritarian consolidation erodes these safeguards.

● Without reliable institutions, companies face a higher risk of politicized regulations, favoritism, or selective enforcement.

● Global capital depends on confidence in U.S. democratic stability. Authoritarian drift could lead to capital outflows, reduced foreign direct investment, and a weaker dollar as investors seek safer jurisdictions.

● Authoritarian systems often mean policy changes on a whim, benefiting allies and punishing opponents. That increases volatility, discourages long-term business planning, and incentivizes short-termism over innovation.

● U.S. authoritarianism could strain alliances (this is already happening), trigger retaliatory trade policies, and weaken American leadership in global standard-setting.

● U.S. competitiveness relies on being a magnet for global talent. An authoritarian shift could reduce immigration, drive skilled workers abroad (this is already happening), and create a climate of fear and censorship that stifles innovation and entrepreneurship.

● Institutional investors and consumers worldwide are increasingly guided by environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. A U.S. move toward authoritarianism would damage its ESG profile, pushing pension funds and global asset managers to divest.

Historical Comparisons
Other countries that consolidated authoritarian rule show a clear pattern: markets initially underprice the risk, only to suffer later when the costs become undeniable.

Russia (Putin):
In the early 2000s, Russia was attractive to foreign investors. But once Putin consolidated power, arbitrary interventions like the Yukos oil seizure scared off capital. Valuations remained permanently discounted due to ‘Kremlin risk’. By 2022, geopolitical aggression fueled by authoritarian control triggered massive capital flight, sanctions, and an investment collapse.

Turkey (Erdogan):
Turkey was once an emerging-market success story. As Erdogan weakened central bank independence and concentrated power, the lira collapsed, inflation soared (up to 84%), and foreign direct investment dried up. Unpredictable regulations, cronyism, and politicized courts continue to suppress growth.

Hungary (Orban):
Orban’s erosion of rule of law and press freedom led investors to see Hungary as politically risky compared to peers like Poland or the Czech Republic. Reliance on EU subsidies deepened as private capital inflows shrank.

Venezuela (Chávez/Maduro):
An extreme case. Venezuela was once South America’s wealthiest nation. But authoritarian populism led to expropriations, collapse of the private sector, and irreversible capital flight. Markets underestimated the risks until it was too late.

Will Trump’s attempt succeed?
The jury’s still out on this one. Crucial will be the mid-term elections from next year where democrats can win back dominance in the House of Representatives and part of congress. I am personally very pessimistic about this. Trump will not allow the democrats to win and rig the election any way he can. I have a hard time seeing any other scenario than violent revolution to turn this nightmare around and undo the untold damage Trump is causing.

Revenge of the Sith is 20 Years Old. It Is a Prophetic Vision of America Today

Posted on by Jeppe Kleijngeld

TRUMP WARS

Episode III

REVENGE OF THE MAGA

War! The republic is crumbling under ruthless attacks by Maga Lord Elon Musk.
There are assholes on both sides. Evil is everywhere.

In a stunning move, the fiendish president Donald J. Trump, has wiped out trillions in stock market value with an insanely stupid and useless trade war.

As the separatist MAGA-republicans attempt to siege the Capitol with their law enforcement hostages, Bernie Sanders is on his way to kick some Republican ass…

The Dark Side Calling
Exactly twenty years ago, Star Wars Episode III – Revenge of the Sith hit Dutch theaters as the dark turning point in the Star Wars saga. I remember the Darth Vader posters hanging all around the city where I worked. It was a monumental cinema experience, but it was also a dark movie that depicted the fall of a Republic, the rise of an Empire, and the death of democracy at the hands of a terrible authoritarian. Not to mention the tragic fate of all the characters we had grown to love.

Today, it feels less like science fiction and more like prophecy, as the United States of America – once the leading democracy in the world – is now rapidly becoming an authoritarian dictatorship.

The opening shot of Revenge of the Sith is a real triumph. Anakin and Obi-Wan fly through the besieged airspace above Coruscant, and it’s all filmed in one terrific and dizzying shot. Technically, this might be the best of the Star Wars movies.

When Anakin and Obi-Wan board the ship where Palpatine is held hostage by Count Dooku and General Grievous, we notice that Anakin is wearing black clothes. This is already a symbol of where he is heading. But he is still a good guy here, unwilling to leave his friend behind in a time of trouble.

Obi-Wan looks a bit like J.D. Vance, the vice president in Trump’s regime. But make no mistake – he is nothing like him in character. He is a great Jedi Knight, just as Qui-Gon Jinn predicted he would become. Vance also looks like Count Dooku (the great Christopher Lee), and he is closer to this Dark Lord in character, though nowhere near as smart.

Then – in the showdown with Count Dooku – we get the first warning sign of Anakin’s approaching downfall. “My powers have doubled since we last met, Count.” Overconfidence, pride, anger… these are all hallmarks of a character vulnerable to Dark Side manipulation. Add fear to that, and Palpatine will have an easy mark.

Count Dooku provokes Anakin, leading him to tap into the Dark Side. He uses his anger and aggression to defeat Dooku by cutting off both his hands. Then Palpatine urges him to kill Dooku, and he does. It turns out Anakin had told Palpatine about his mother and the slaughter of the Sand People. Palpatine is using that information to turn Anakin.

So he already has his hooks in the young Jedi. But Anakin is still a good person at this point. He refuses to abandon a wounded Obi-Wan and ensures the entire team escapes from the cruel cyborg General Grievous.

Then Anakin pulls off an amazing emergency landing with a spacecraft. Visually, this parallels the Trump era, where burning planes and helicopters seem to fall from the sky regularly due to Elon Musk’s firing of air traffic controllers.

Fear is the Mind Killer
The Senate gives the Chancellor permission to continue the war against the Separatists. Dictators always use emergency powers to dismantle democracy – and Palpatine and Trump are no exceptions. Trump’s emergency powers are invoked for bogus reasons. The USA is supposedly at war with Venezuelan gang members. That is ridiculous, but in Trump-land, that doesn’t matter.

The reason for these powers in Revenge of the Sith is that General Grievous is still alive. But we see that Grievous secretly works for Palpatine. The General is worried about Count Dooku’s death, but Palpatine assures him, “Soon, I will have a new apprentice. One far younger and more powerful.” He is clearly preparing for his masterstroke.

Revenge of the Sith has a terrific cast. Ian McDiarmid is especially powerful, delivering his lines as though in a Shakespearean play.

Meanwhile, Anakin learns from Padmé that she is pregnant. This is the happiest moment of his life, he tells her. Of course, their love is extremely dangerous in a time of Dark Side seduction. And then it happens: the nightmare. Anakin sees Padmé, his great love, dying, and it terrifies him.

A coaching session with Yoda seems to bring some enlightenment: “Be mindful. Fear of loss is a path to the Dark Side.” If only Anakin had truly understood what those words meant.

Missed Warning Signs
Anakin and Obi-Wan meet, and Obi-Wan is worried about Palpatine, who is about to receive even more executive powers from the Senate. This parallels America today, where Trump has already made Congress powerless and is actively ignoring the courts.

Anakin meets with Palpatine, who flatters him by proposing he become the Chancellor’s representative on the Jedi Council. There are beautiful shots here of Anakin and Palpatine – clearly staged to resemble Darth Vader and the Emperor walking together. “I need you to be the eyes, ears, and voice of the Republic.”

He gives Anakin a special task – just as Trump did with Musk, sending him into government agencies to extract data and build a massive surveillance system, yet another weapon for his dictatorship ambitions.

Anakin is brought before the Jedi Council. They accept him, but do not grant him the rank of Master. His angry response should have been a clear warning sign. There were plenty of warning signs during Trump’s campaign too – like mimicking Hitler and other fascist leaders in his speeches.

“It’s unfair”, says Anakin. That’s practically a direct copy of Trump. Narcissists like Trump are always playing the victim. “No country has ever been treated as unfairly as the United States”, Trump often complains. And he constantly claims to be the victim of a political witch hunt.

Standing With the Underdog
In that fateful Council meeting, Yoda utters one of the greatest lines of the film when learning that the Wookiees are under attack from the Separatists: “Go I will. Good relations with the Wookiees I have.”

The battle on the Wookiee planet Kashyyyk recalls Ukraine – a country with limited arms being attacked by a massive mechanized army (Russia). Yet they are stronger, because they are defending their freedom.

In the Ukraine war, Trump has sided with Russia, because he doesn’t care about Ukraine. It is just a pawn in a much greater battle for global control. Russia could be seen as standing in for the Separatists, though they see themselves as an empire.

The Ultimate Gaslighter
Things in Revenge of the Sith turn ugly very quickly. This is another hallmark of establishing a dictatorship. Events accelerate so fast that the good guys – in this case, the Jedi – can’t keep up.

They ask Anakin to spy on Palpatine, because “our allegiance is to the Senate, not its leader.” Most Republicans in the USA seem to have forgotten this pledge. They are 100% loyal to Trump, which is the heart of Project 2025.

Anakin argues with Padmé, who suggests that maybe the democracy they were trying to protect no longer exists. The parallel to the USA is stark: the political system is heavily influenced by money, and democracy is no longer functioning.

Palpatine’s final move is to portray the Jedi as attempting to illegally seize control of the Republic. Trump similarly convinced Americans that “evil” Biden was doing the same through the so-called deep state. By encouraging conspiracy theories, anti-science views, and mistrust in institutions, Trump sowed the seeds for victory.

“All who gain power are afraid to lose it. Even the Jedi”, Palpatine tells Anakin at a beautifully staged space opera. Also: “Good is a point of view, Anakin.” Indeed, we now have two competing truths: the Trump-Fox News truth and the Biden-CNN truth. On social media, we live in separate bubbles.

“The MAGA rely on their passion for their strength. They think inward – only about themselves.” “And the Jedi don’t?” This is classic MAGA: twisting narratives to vilify their opponents.

Palpatine tells Anakin the Sith legend of Darth Plagueis and the secret to immortality. This is the film’s Faustian moment. Many in the Trump administration made a similar bargain: loyalty in exchange for power.

ORDER 66 – PROJECT 2025
Before Palpatine’s rise in the Star Wars prequels, the Sith had been extinct for a millennium. Trump was also in a deep hole after losing the 2020 election. But he made a comeback – first by taking over the Republican Party, then by preparing for a return to power through Project 2025.

Trump is like Palpatine in many ways, particularly in his hunger for absolute power. Even physically, his grotesque expression mirrors Palpatine’s post-transformation face. And make no mistake – Trump is a manipulator, exploiting anyone in his way. While he lacks subtlety or strategy, he remains extremely dangerous. His bulldozer tactics may hinder him, but America’s fate remains undecided.

When the Jedi try to arrest Palpatine, the fate of the Republic is sealed. “I am the Senate!”, he screams. That’s typical Trump, who also believes his executive power should be limitless.

He kills three Jedi and convinces Anakin to kill Mace Windu. “He is a traitor”, Palpatine gaslights Anakin. Windu makes one last attempt to persuade him: “He has control of the Senate and the courts. He’s too dangerous to be left alive.” If there is one line in the film that best reflects the current Trump predicament, it is that one.

But Anakin – afraid of losing Padmé if Palpatine dies – makes a fateful choice and cuts off Windu’s hands. Windu is then killed by the now monstrous-looking Palpatine. “UNLIMITED POWER!!!” Anakin’s descent to the Dark Side is complete. Then he carries out Order 66. “Once more, the Sith will rule the galaxy, and we shall have peace.”

Trump seeks to rule the galaxy like Palpatine. He wants control over universities, the media, and the courts. He wants to own Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Panama, and Gaza. And he wants world leaders to bow before him in the Oval Office.

A pressing question remains: will Trump have his own Order 66? Will he use the military to suppress his own people and further his autocratic goals? The first steps already seem underway.

Final Transformation
Palpatine quickly consolidates his power. He sends Darth Vader to kill the Jedi younglings and Separatist leaders, then holds an emergency Senate session to declare the Republic reorganized into the first Galactic Empire.

Padmé utters the now-famous line: “This is how liberty dies – with thunderous applause.”

Exactly. This recalls Trump’s victory, cheered by many – including business elites. His sycophants continue to praise him no matter what terrible things he says or does.

The finale of Revenge of the Sith is painful and heartbreaking – as it should be. Yoda and Obi-Wan discover the murdered younglings. Obi-Wan tells Padmé what Anakin has done. Then, after their brutal duel on Mustafar, Anakin is burned alive. It’s dark, powerful stuff.

In their final confrontation, Anakin tells Obi-Wan he now sees the Jedi as evil. Just like Trump and Musk view Democrats and the values they once stood for – like climate protection, freedom, and diversity – as evil.

“I sense Elon is in danger. His Tesla stock is burning.”
Elon Musk has similarities to Anakin. A smart, energetic kid with a passion for technology, he once did good – like supporting Ukraine with Starlink satellites. But he crossed a line. He’s transformed into a Dark MAGA figure and caused massive harm.

Like Anakin kills the Jedi younglings, Elon Musk is responsible for the deaths of thousands of children by slashing USAID funds. He has sunk to a level of evil that few would ever imagine to be possible. The only solution to the Trump-Musk regime is now complete destruction.

That shot where the Vader mask closes over Anakin’s burned face is powerful. His transformation is complete.

Final Thoughts
After the death of Padmé and the birth of Luke and Leia, Yoda and Obi-Wan go into exile – like Harris, Biden, and Waltz, after failing to stop the Trumpian menace.

After all that darkness, the film ends on a hopeful note. Leia is delivered to her adoptive parents. Obi-Wan brings Luke to his aunt and uncle on Tatooine as they look out at the twin sunset.

The message: there is always hope.

The Worst Dealmaker in the World

Posted on by Jeppe Kleijngeld

AI-GENERATED POLITICAL CARTOONS: Ghibli-style cartoon of Putin and Trump cutting and dividing a cake as a symbol of Ukraine.

In the early days of his young presidency, Donald Trump’s cabinet members couldn’t stop praising his dealmaking skills. I think it was his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, who said Trump was probably the only person in the universe who could negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Lately, it’s been a little quieter on that front. Now that America is heading towards a recession and trillions in stock market value have been wiped out thanks to Trump’s tariffs, it’s hard to argue that he’s a great dealmaker – especially since he hasn’t secured a single trade deal to make up for the carnage he caused. How embarrassing.

During the campaign, Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours – a promise anyone with half a brain could see was complete nonsense. After all, to negotiate a successful deal, you need information about the other party that’s hard to come by. Trump doesn’t know anything about the conflict, and he doesn’t care either way. He just wants them to stop fighting and freeze the conflict as it stands. In other words: he wants to reward Putin for starting a war of aggression by handing him over occupied Ukrainian land. And when Zelensky refuses, Trump blames him for the war. Anyone can end a conflict by rewarding the bully and punishing the victim.

The USA has made it clear in the past week that they want both Russia and Ukraine to agree to a peace deal. In this proposed deal, only Ukraine is expected to make significant concessions – like giving up large swaths of land. Russia, on the other hand, is rewarded with the lifting of Western sanctions. If they don’t agree, the USA will simply walk away from the conflict.

J.D. Vance said the USA has engaged in “an extraordinary amount of diplomacy”. That’s total crap. What did they actually do? First, they sent an amateur delegation to Saudi Arabia to meet with Russia’s hardened negotiation team. The main topic of discussion? Restoring economic relations with the USA. Before that, Pete ‘Bourbon Pete’ Hegseth – already the worst Minister of Defense of all time – gave away all of Ukraine’s bargaining chips before negotiations even began.

Trump also proposed a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine, which Zelensky agreed to – only for Putin to reject it without facing any consequences. More recently, the USA sent another amateur diplomat to Russia, special envoy Steve Witkoff, who praised Vladimir Putin in glowing terms as such a nice and trustworthy guy – while women and children are being raped and murdered in Ukraine under Putin’s orders.

Through all this so-called “extraordinary diplomacy”, the Trump regime hasn’t made a single demand of Putin – the aggressor in the conflict. Not one. What it has done is try to extort Ukraine – the victim – out of its rare earth minerals and natural resources. That effort failed, too.

You don’t have to understand negotiations to know this is the lowest level of dealmaking imaginable. It’s not even a serious attempt. It’s obvious that Trump wants nothing more than a cozy relationship with Putin, whom he so deeply admires. He couldn’t care less about what happens to Ukraine.

At this point, a few things are crystal clear. First, Trump is a terrible dealmaker who doesn’t understand history. Second, there’s clearly some kind of relationship between Trump and Putin, the nature of which remains mysterious. Is Trump just a fan of Putin’s authoritarian style – or is he a Russian asset?

Finally, it’s time for Europe to take the lead in Ukraine and step up efforts to pressure Putin and ensure a long-term Ukrainian victory. In its current state, America is a useless friend and ally. Let them first get rid of the disaster that is Trump – then, maybe, we can be friends again. Until then, it’s best they get out of the way.

Why the Ukraine War Might End Soon

Posted on by Jeppe Kleijngeld

On February 24, 2022, the Russian army invaded Ukraine. Many, including myself and Russian President Vladimir Putin, initially believed it would be a short operation. Putin expected to topple the Ukrainian government within three days and install a puppet regime, turning Ukraine into a vassal state. However, events unfolded quite differently.

Rather than surrendering and giving up their sovereignty, Ukraine sought Western support, receiving weapons that allowed them to fiercely resist the Russian invasion. To avoid appearing weak, Putin escalated the conflict into a full-scale war, which has now dragged on for three years. During this time, Russia has managed to occupy around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, but progress has been painstakingly slow and has come at an enormous cost in human lives, financial resources, and military equipment.

Russia’s relentless ‘meat grinder’ tactics are unsustainable. The country is running out of funds to continue the war while its economy struggles with soaring inflation and high interest rates. This puts Putin in a precarious position. If the West maintains pressure and Ukraine continues to receive support, Putin may eventually be forced to withdraw – a move that would leave him vulnerable to backlash from Russian elites, the public, and key power groups.

So far, Putin has consistently framed the military operation in Ukraine as a necessary measure to protect Russian speakers and to achieve the ‘demilitarization and denazification’ of Ukraine. He claims that Ukraine has been under the control of neo-Nazis and Western influences, posing a direct threat to Russia’s security. But if he pulls out of Ukraine without achieving these objectives, how will he justify it?

Trump may have just provided him with a convenient narrative. According to expert Konstantin Samoilov, Putin could use the Trump administration’s pro-Russian stance to declare victory. Samoilov suggests that Putin might announce this on May 9 – Victory Day in Moscow.

“In my eyes, Putin has won”, Samoilov stated in a recent episode of Silicon Curtain. “For three years, he has been telling Russians: ‘We are not fighting Ukraine; we are fighting the collective West, led by the USA, which is using Ukraine as a proxy.’ Now he has an event in the White House where Zelensky was basically kicked out. Additionally, the U.S. suspended military aid to Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces withdrew from Kursk. That, to Putin, is a victory. On May 9, he might say: ‘Dear Russians, we have fought the USA – and we have won.’”

While an end to the war might seem like a relief for Ukraine and the West, Samoilov warns that Russia’s withdrawal could signal something even more sinister. “Putin will end the special military operation in its current form, only to replace it with something far worse. He will shift the Russian economy and society into full-scale war mode. He will say: ‘This war is over, but the threat remains – and now it is even bigger because it is Europe.’ The Kremlin will manufacture reasons to convince Russians that the real enemy is closer than ever, and the state will take complete control of the economy.”

I find Samoilov’s arguments compelling. The Russian military simply does not have the strength to continue pushing forward, especially if Europe remains committed to supplying Ukraine with resources – which I believe they will. As Silicon Curtain host Jonathan Fink points out, there are already signs that the Kremlin is preparing for this shift. Russian propaganda is framing recent U.S. actions as evidence that the Kremlin’s narratives were correct all along, reinforcing the image of Russia as the victor. Last week, Putin made Trump wait an hour before speaking to him in the ‘negotiations’ call to show the people that he was the big alpha male and Trump is basically his bitch.

Once again, we – the West – should not underestimate Putin as we did in the past. If he indeed ends the Ukraine war, we must assume that he will be back in full force. We are very far from a permanent peace with Russia, and arguably this can only be achieved if Russia is defeated. An inconvenient truth if ever there was one.